Class News
Bruce Driver ’64 analyzes ten contested U.S. Senate races
March 12, 2022
For some years, Bruce Driver has been writing a blog that covers U.S. Senate Races.
Here is his runup to the November 2022 races:
Last November I mentioned that 90 Senate races were considered a lock for one party or another, leaving 10 races that were contestable. Because of the make-up of the 90 that were locks, the Ds would have to win 7 out of the 10 to draw even with the Rs in the Senate, as we are now.
Colorado: Cook Political Report believes that Bennet has slipped because of the relative unpopularity of Biden in Colorado. Also, a wealthy business owner, Joe O’Dea, has joined the race. O’Dea is the only R-candidate seeking to make the primary ballot by petition, an expensive proposition (the primary is on June 28). The other candidates seeking to gain the ballot by winning at least 30% of the delegates to the R Assembly on April 9 are Dan Hanks, Gino Campana, Deborah Flora, and Eli Bremer. Hanks is far-right crazy. O’Dea is the “moderate” in the bunch, rejecting Trump’s assertion that the election was stolen. I don’t know much about the others. I believe they are all followers of Trump. Bennet needs help against the likely R nominee, O’Dea.
Arizona: This likely remains Mark Kelly’s race to lose. However, he has two formidable opponents: Mark Brnovich and Blake Masters. The R primary is not until 8/2/22, so we won’t know who Kelly has to beat for sure until then. Kelly has raised a ton of money, $25 million. His opponents have raised a total of $7 million, but this does not include the $10 million that Peter Thiel, a Trump acolyte, has given to a PAC supporting Masters. Brnovich is the state Attorney General. He and Kelly are roughly tied in the most recent head-to-head poll. Masters seems to have fallen back a little. Kelly has enough money to pull this one out, but Brnovich may have more name recognition.
Pennsylvania: The leading R as of last November, Trump-endorsed Sean Parnell, has dropped out of the race. This still leaves 25 other candidates of both parties. However, there are really only two leading R candidates, Mehmet Oz and David McCormack. Oz is a very well-known TV personality who joined the race after my report last November. McCormack is a hedge-fund billionaire who just joined the race. Oz leads McCormack in the polls, and both of them are well ahead of the other Rs. As to the Ds, two are well ahead of the others: Conor Lamb and John Fetterman. Fetterman has more money than Lamb, but the Pennsylvania Democratic Party just took a straw poll among insiders, and Lamb won it handily. The primary is on 5/17/22. Fetterman is the more progressive of the two.
Ohio: This is another crowded race on the R side. Mike Gibbons, a Cleveland banker who joined the race since last November, leads with 22% in the latest poll. Josh Mandel is next at 15% and JD Vance has 8%. Everyone is waiting for the Trump endorsement, which will likely determine the R candidate. The leading D (and only D with a chance) is Tim Ryan with 31%, far ahead of other Ds, who are all in single digits. Tim Ryan is a terrific candidate in my view. Strong with labor and in his tenth term in the House from an industrial district. He will need help. The primary is May 3.
Georgia: Raphael Warnock is running for a full term as a D Senator. His only real opponent is Herschel Walker, although there are one or two Rs who are running hard against him. I described Walker in my November report and will not do so here, except to say that, after Trump’s endorsement a while ago, Walker has taken the lead from Warnock by a few points in the latest poll. This is a very bad development as Walker is awful but very well known. Warnock has money but not the name recognition of Walker. The primary is on May 24.
Nevada: Cortez-Masto, the incumbent D, is running for another term. Her opponent is Adam Laxalt, who is far-right, as I described last November. He spoke at the recent CPAC convention and practically worships Trump. People seem to like Cortez-Masto. I think Laxalt is too far right for NV. The most recent poll has Cortez-Masto up by nine, which is a doubling of her edge from last November. I think Nevadans now know that Laxalt is not the son of the Paul Laxalt, who was a popular NV Senator and close pal of Reagan 35 years ago. I explained this lurid story in my November report. The NV primary is on June 14.
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson, who said he would not run for another term, changed his mind and is running again. He has the lowest favorability rating of any Senator who is running in 2022. However, he leads the currently leading Dem, Mandela Barnes, by one point. Barnes is Wisconsin’s Lieutenant Governor. He is an African-American from Milwaukee with pretty hard-left positions. He is eloquent, smart, and an attractive candidate. There are other D candidates: State Treasurer Sara Goldweski, former Obama staffer Alex Lasry, and Wisconsin State Senate Leader Tom Nelson. The Ds have the horses in this race. They need to pick the right one to beat Johnson, an awful man. The primary is on 8/9/22, so the Dems will have time to size up the candidates and choose the right one.
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan, running for another term, has a 13% lead in the latest poll over Don Bolduc, the leading R, according to a UNH poll completed only ten days ago. This is a crowded primary, with several Ds and Rs competing against each other. Hassan should win this race, but the Rs will pour money into it now that Governor Sununu, the early favorite, decided not to run. The primary is late, September 13.
North Carolina: Cheri Beasley, formerly the Chief Judge of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is the leading D candidate now that her toughest opponent, Jeff Jackson, has dropped out. Beasley is an African-American. Could North Carolina elect an African-American as Senator? I think so. Gone are the days of Jesse Helms, who ran a bigoted campaign against Harvey Glantz many years ago. There are two serious R candidates in the mix. Ted Budd, a member of the U.S. House, and ex-Governor Pat McCrory. McCrory held the lead last fall, but Trump has endorsed Budd, propelling Budd into the lead by five points in the latest poll. Budd is hard-right. There is no recent poll matching Beasley against Budd. The primary is May 17.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley holds on to a 15% lead in a February 22 poll over Abby Finkenaur. Grassley is 88. Unless his age takes him down, he looks like he has this race wrapped up. The primary is June 7.
Florida: Similarly, Marco Rubio holds a ten-point lead over Val Demings, up slightly since last fall. The primary is August 23.
Summary: Of the ten contestable races I described last November, perhaps only New Hampshire and Nevada have swung in our favor. Georgia has likely swung against us and, maybe, Wisconsin. Florida and Iowa seem solid R at this point. Colorado remains likely D but is no longer solid according to Cook.
Bruce Driver is a semi-retired lawyer with an interest in energy, water, and other issues that relate to environmental protection. For Western Resource Advocates he has been Energy Program Manager, Water Program Manager, and then Executive Director. He has also been Scholar-in-Residence at the Western Governors' Association; Counsel for the Subcommittee on Energy and Conservation at the U.S. House of Representatives; Deputy Assistant General Counsel at the U.S. Dept. of Energy; and Minority Consultant for the Subcommittee on the Environment, U.S. House of Representatives. He remains interested in promoting policies that protect the natural environment, especially in Colorado and elsewhere in the interior West.
Bruce earned a B.A. in History from Yale, an M.B.A. from the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, and a J.D. from the School of Law, University of Michigan.